{ "opened_utc": "2026-09-22T20:53:47+00:00", "decision_season": "2025/26", "outcome_season": "2026/27", "code_at": "cc2851a", "selection_rule": "Every attacker season in 2025/26 with 15+ prior shots on target, 15+ in the season, and conversion at least 1.25x the player's own established rate. No case added or removed by hand.", "prediction_rule": "Beta-Binomial shrinkage. Prior fitted per division on seasons up to and including the decision season only. 80% posterior predictive interval on the player's expected shots on target.", "disclosure": "Opened roughly five rounds into 2026/27. No 2026/27 performance data is used by any prediction; the live season is read for current club only. Settlement is over the full season.", "settlement_rules": [ "Outcome is the player's league conversion (goals / shots on target) over the whole 2026/27 season, in the SAME division as the decision season.", "Scoreable only with 15+ shots on target in 2026/27. Below that the call is reported as INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE and counts neither way.", "A player who changed division is reported separately as MOVED and is not in the primary score: his rate is then measured against different defences, the same reason pairs are keyed within division.", "Primary score: share of scoreable outcomes inside the stated 80% interval (calibrated if near 80%), and mean absolute error against the naive baseline of repeating 2025/26.", "Calls are settled after the last round of each division's 2026/27 season. Every call is reported, including the ones that go against us." ], "calls": [ { "player_id": 181421, "name": "A. Ezzalzouli", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Real Betis", "club_now": "Real Betis", "division_now": "La Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1429, "rate_2025_26": 0.3846, "goals_2025_26": 10, "sot_2025_26": 26, "lift": 2.692, "prediction": 0.2562, "interval_80": [ 0.1304, 0.3913 ], "expected_sot": 23, "baseline": 0.3846, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 26254, "name": "C. Daferner", "division": "2. Bundesliga", "league_id": 79, "club_2025_26": "Dynamo Dresden", "club_now": "Dynamo Dresden", "division_now": "2. Bundesliga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1765, "rate_2025_26": 0.4118, "goals_2025_26": 7, "sot_2025_26": 17, "lift": 2.333, "prediction": 0.3193, "interval_80": [ 0.1765, 0.4706 ], "expected_sot": 17, "baseline": 0.4118, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 137403, "name": "A. Muja", "division": "Jupiler Pro League", "league_id": 144, "club_2025_26": "St. Truiden", "club_now": "St. Truiden", "division_now": "Jupiler Pro League", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1667, "rate_2025_26": 0.375, "goals_2025_26": 6, "sot_2025_26": 16, "lift": 2.25, "prediction": 0.2907, "interval_80": [ 0.1176, 0.4706 ], "expected_sot": 17, "baseline": 0.375, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 84128, "name": "Y. Gboho", "division": "Ligue 1", "league_id": 61, "club_2025_26": "Toulouse", "club_now": "Toulouse", "division_now": "Ligue 1", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2353, "rate_2025_26": 0.5, "goals_2025_26": 8, "sot_2025_26": 16, "lift": 2.125, "prediction": 0.3262, "interval_80": [ 0.1765, 0.4706 ], "expected_sot": 17, "baseline": 0.5, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 41223, "name": "Guilherme Schettine", "division": "Primeira Liga", "league_id": 94, "club_2025_26": "Moreirense", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.25, "rate_2025_26": 0.5294, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 17, "lift": 2.118, "prediction": 0.3648, "interval_80": [ 0.2222, 0.5556 ], "expected_sot": 18, "baseline": 0.5294, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 18766, "name": "D. Calvert-Lewin", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Leeds", "club_now": "Leeds", "division_now": "Premier League", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1967, "rate_2025_26": 0.4118, "goals_2025_26": 14, "sot_2025_26": 34, "lift": 2.093, "prediction": 0.2847, "interval_80": [ 0.1667, 0.4167 ], "expected_sot": 24, "baseline": 0.4118, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 86549, "name": "D. Durand", "division": "Ligue 2", "league_id": 62, "club_2025_26": "RED Star FC 93", "club_now": "RED Star FC 93", "division_now": "Ligue 2", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3182, "rate_2025_26": 0.619, "goals_2025_26": 13, "sot_2025_26": 21, "lift": 1.946, "prediction": 0.4334, "interval_80": [ 0.2727, 0.5909 ], "expected_sot": 22, "baseline": 0.619, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 162839, "name": "Z. Vipotnik", "division": "Championship", "league_id": 40, "club_2025_26": "Swansea", "club_now": "Swansea", "division_now": "Championship", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3333, "rate_2025_26": 0.6389, "goals_2025_26": 23, "sot_2025_26": 36, "lift": 1.917, "prediction": 0.4918, "interval_80": [ 0.3571, 0.6429 ], "expected_sot": 28, "baseline": 0.6389, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 195513, "name": "A. Trezza", "division": "Primeira Liga", "league_id": 94, "club_2025_26": "Arouca", "club_now": "Arouca", "division_now": "Primeira Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.25, "rate_2025_26": 0.4737, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 19, "lift": 1.895, "prediction": 0.3512, "interval_80": [ 0.1538, 0.5385 ], "expected_sot": 13, "baseline": 0.4737, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 119232, "name": "Dani Gómez", "division": "Segunda División", "league_id": 141, "club_2025_26": "Zaragoza", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.25, "rate_2025_26": 0.4737, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 19, "lift": 1.895, "prediction": 0.3286, "interval_80": [ 0.1667, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 18, "baseline": 0.4737, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 14605, "name": "I. Prtajin", "division": "2. Bundesliga", "league_id": 79, "club_2025_26": "1. FC Kaiserslautern", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2653, "rate_2025_26": 0.5, "goals_2025_26": 11, "sot_2025_26": 22, "lift": 1.885, "prediction": 0.3443, "interval_80": [ 0.2222, 0.4722 ], "expected_sot": 36, "baseline": 0.5, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 266331, "name": "F. Pittarello", "division": "Serie B", "league_id": 136, "club_2025_26": "Catanzaro", "club_now": "Pisa", "division_now": "Serie B", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2162, "rate_2025_26": 0.375, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 32, "lift": 1.734, "prediction": 0.3008, "interval_80": [ 0.1739, 0.4348 ], "expected_sot": 23, "baseline": 0.375, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 125743, "name": "Beto", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Everton", "club_now": "Fiorentina", "division_now": "Serie A", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.3056, "rate_2025_26": 0.5294, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 17, "lift": 1.733, "prediction": 0.3719, "interval_80": [ 0.2222, 0.5556 ], "expected_sot": 18, "baseline": 0.5294, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 1707, "name": "Gerard Moreno", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Villarreal", "club_now": "Villarreal", "division_now": "La Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3636, "rate_2025_26": 0.625, "goals_2025_26": 10, "sot_2025_26": 16, "lift": 1.719, "prediction": 0.4101, "interval_80": [ 0.2222, 0.5556 ], "expected_sot": 18, "baseline": 0.625, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 24743, "name": "Z. Davitashvili", "division": "Ligue 2", "league_id": 62, "club_2025_26": "Saint Etienne", "club_now": "Saint Etienne", "division_now": "Ligue 2", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3333, "rate_2025_26": 0.56, "goals_2025_26": 14, "sot_2025_26": 25, "lift": 1.68, "prediction": 0.4066, "interval_80": [ 0.2381, 0.5714 ], "expected_sot": 21, "baseline": 0.56, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 203458, "name": "Y. Sor", "division": "Jupiler Pro League", "league_id": 144, "club_2025_26": "Genk", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1429, "rate_2025_26": 0.2353, "goals_2025_26": 4, "sot_2025_26": 17, "lift": 1.647, "prediction": 0.2205, "interval_80": [ 0.0667, 0.4 ], "expected_sot": 15, "baseline": 0.2353, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 90617, "name": "L. Sinayoko", "division": "Ligue 1", "league_id": 61, "club_2025_26": "Auxerre", "club_now": "Paris FC", "division_now": "Ligue 1", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.1935, "rate_2025_26": 0.3158, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 38, "lift": 1.632, "prediction": 0.2771, "interval_80": [ 0.1304, 0.4348 ], "expected_sot": 23, "baseline": 0.3158, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 138776, "name": "L. Ramazani", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Valencia", "club_now": "Burnley", "division_now": "Championship", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.1935, "rate_2025_26": 0.3158, "goals_2025_26": 6, "sot_2025_26": 19, "lift": 1.632, "prediction": 0.2656, "interval_80": [ 0.1176, 0.4118 ], "expected_sot": 17, "baseline": 0.3158, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 103958, "name": "C. Ramírez", "division": "Primeira Liga", "league_id": 94, "club_2025_26": "Nacional", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.25, "rate_2025_26": 0.4, "goals_2025_26": 18, "sot_2025_26": 45, "lift": 1.6, "prediction": 0.3495, "interval_80": [ 0.2273, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 22, "baseline": 0.4, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 129709, "name": "M. Whittaker", "division": "Championship", "league_id": 40, "club_2025_26": "Middlesbrough", "club_now": "Middlesbrough", "division_now": "Championship", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2683, "rate_2025_26": 0.4242, "goals_2025_26": 14, "sot_2025_26": 33, "lift": 1.581, "prediction": 0.3178, "interval_80": [ 0.2105, 0.4211 ], "expected_sot": 38, "baseline": 0.4242, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 1496, "name": "Raphinha", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Barcelona", "club_now": "Barcelona", "division_now": "La Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3444, "rate_2025_26": 0.5417, "goals_2025_26": 13, "sot_2025_26": 24, "lift": 1.573, "prediction": 0.3819, "interval_80": [ 0.25, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 28, "baseline": 0.5417, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 274278, "name": "I. Baldé", "division": "Ligue 2", "league_id": 62, "club_2025_26": "Rodez", "club_now": "Rodez", "division_now": "Ligue 2", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3333, "rate_2025_26": 0.5217, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 23, "lift": 1.565, "prediction": 0.4052, "interval_80": [ 0.25, 0.5625 ], "expected_sot": 16, "baseline": 0.5217, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 1422, "name": "J. Doku", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Manchester City", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2143, "rate_2025_26": 0.3333, "goals_2025_26": 5, "sot_2025_26": 15, "lift": 1.556, "prediction": 0.2813, "interval_80": [ 0.1429, 0.4286 ], "expected_sot": 14, "baseline": 0.3333, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 2218, "name": "I. Sarr", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Crystal Palace", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2759, "rate_2025_26": 0.4286, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 21, "lift": 1.554, "prediction": 0.3431, "interval_80": [ 0.2, 0.48 ], "expected_sot": 25, "baseline": 0.4286, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 178353, "name": "L. Schuler", "division": "2. Bundesliga", "league_id": 79, "club_2025_26": "Hertha BSC", "club_now": "Hertha BSC", "division_now": "2. Bundesliga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3235, "rate_2025_26": 0.5, "goals_2025_26": 8, "sot_2025_26": 16, "lift": 1.545, "prediction": 0.3779, "interval_80": [ 0.1667, 0.5833 ], "expected_sot": 12, "baseline": 0.5, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 19083, "name": "C. Morris", "division": "Championship", "league_id": 40, "club_2025_26": "Derby", "club_now": "Derby", "division_now": "Championship", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3944, "rate_2025_26": 0.6, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 20, "lift": 1.521, "prediction": 0.4281, "interval_80": [ 0.3, 0.5667 ], "expected_sot": 30, "baseline": 0.6, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 39100, "name": "T. Lauritsen", "division": "Eredivisie", "league_id": 88, "club_2025_26": "Sparta Rotterdam", "club_now": "Sampdoria", "division_now": "Serie B", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.2927, "rate_2025_26": 0.4444, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 27, "lift": 1.519, "prediction": 0.3238, "interval_80": [ 0.2105, 0.4211 ], "expected_sot": 38, "baseline": 0.4444, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 340153, "name": "M. Godts", "division": "Eredivisie", "league_id": 88, "club_2025_26": "Ajax", "club_now": "Paris Saint Germain", "division_now": "Ligue 1", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.2667, "rate_2025_26": 0.4048, "goals_2025_26": 17, "sot_2025_26": 42, "lift": 1.518, "prediction": 0.366, "interval_80": [ 0.2143, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 28, "baseline": 0.4048, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 153, "name": "O. Dembélé", "division": "Ligue 1", "league_id": 61, "club_2025_26": "Paris Saint Germain", "club_now": "Paris Saint Germain", "division_now": "Ligue 1", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3692, "rate_2025_26": 0.5556, "goals_2025_26": 10, "sot_2025_26": 18, "lift": 1.505, "prediction": 0.399, "interval_80": [ 0.25, 0.5357 ], "expected_sot": 28, "baseline": 0.5556, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 237131, "name": "S. Mito", "division": "Eredivisie", "league_id": 88, "club_2025_26": "Sparta Rotterdam", "club_now": "Sparta Rotterdam", "division_now": "Eredivisie", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2593, "rate_2025_26": 0.3889, "goals_2025_26": 7, "sot_2025_26": 18, "lift": 1.5, "prediction": 0.3237, "interval_80": [ 0.1333, 0.5333 ], "expected_sot": 15, "baseline": 0.3889, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 288006, "name": "R. Højlund", "division": "Serie A", "league_id": 135, "club_2025_26": "Napoli", "club_now": "Napoli", "division_now": "Serie A", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3214, "rate_2025_26": 0.48, "goals_2025_26": 12, "sot_2025_26": 25, "lift": 1.493, "prediction": 0.3839, "interval_80": [ 0.2308, 0.5385 ], "expected_sot": 26, "baseline": 0.48, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 325717, "name": "André Luiz", "division": "Primeira Liga", "league_id": 94, "club_2025_26": "Rio Ave", "club_now": null, "division_now": null, "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.25, "rate_2025_26": 0.3684, "goals_2025_26": 7, "sot_2025_26": 19, "lift": 1.474, "prediction": 0.3093, "interval_80": [ 0.1429, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 14, "baseline": 0.3684, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 2887, "name": "R. Jiménez", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Fulham", "club_now": "Wolves", "division_now": "Championship", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.322, "rate_2025_26": 0.4737, "goals_2025_26": 9, "sot_2025_26": 19, "lift": 1.471, "prediction": 0.358, "interval_80": [ 0.2, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 20, "baseline": 0.4737, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 47181, "name": "Toni Martínez", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Alaves", "club_now": "Alaves", "division_now": "La Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2667, "rate_2025_26": 0.3889, "goals_2025_26": 14, "sot_2025_26": 36, "lift": 1.458, "prediction": 0.3525, "interval_80": [ 0.2308, 0.5 ], "expected_sot": 26, "baseline": 0.3889, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 608, "name": "L. Boyé", "division": "La Liga", "league_id": 140, "club_2025_26": "Alaves", "club_now": "Alaves", "division_now": "La Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3611, "rate_2025_26": 0.5238, "goals_2025_26": 11, "sot_2025_26": 21, "lift": 1.451, "prediction": 0.4065, "interval_80": [ 0.2632, 0.5789 ], "expected_sot": 19, "baseline": 0.5238, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 72155, "name": "A. Ueda", "division": "Eredivisie", "league_id": 88, "club_2025_26": "Feyenoord", "club_now": "Feyenoord", "division_now": "Eredivisie", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.375, "rate_2025_26": 0.5435, "goals_2025_26": 25, "sot_2025_26": 46, "lift": 1.449, "prediction": 0.4538, "interval_80": [ 0.3077, 0.6154 ], "expected_sot": 26, "baseline": 0.5435, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 85041, "name": "A. Gouiri", "division": "Ligue 1", "league_id": 61, "club_2025_26": "Marseille", "club_now": "Marseille", "division_now": "Ligue 1", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3269, "rate_2025_26": 0.4706, "goals_2025_26": 8, "sot_2025_26": 17, "lift": 1.439, "prediction": 0.359, "interval_80": [ 0.2174, 0.5217 ], "expected_sot": 23, "baseline": 0.4706, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 266630, "name": "Gabriel Silva", "division": "Primeira Liga", "league_id": 94, "club_2025_26": "Santa Clara", "club_now": "SC Braga", "division_now": "Primeira Liga", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.2391, "rate_2025_26": 0.3333, "goals_2025_26": 6, "sot_2025_26": 18, "lift": 1.394, "prediction": 0.2775, "interval_80": [ 0.1429, 0.4286 ], "expected_sot": 21, "baseline": 0.3333, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 1469, "name": "D. Welbeck", "division": "Premier League", "league_id": 39, "club_2025_26": "Brighton", "club_now": "Chelsea", "division_now": "Premier League", "moved_division": false, "established_rate": 0.3333, "rate_2025_26": 0.4643, "goals_2025_26": 13, "sot_2025_26": 28, "lift": 1.393, "prediction": 0.3707, "interval_80": [ 0.2174, 0.5217 ], "expected_sot": 23, "baseline": 0.4643, "status": "INVESTIGATE" }, { "player_id": 19337, "name": "O. McBurnie", "division": "Championship", "league_id": 40, "club_2025_26": "Hull City", "club_now": "Hull City", "division_now": "Premier League", "moved_division": true, "established_rate": 0.3171, "rate_2025_26": 0.439, "goals_2025_26": 18, "sot_2025_26": 41, "lift": 1.385, "prediction": 0.3747, "interval_80": [ 0.2683, 0.4878 ], "expected_sot": 41, "baseline": 0.439, "status": "PROCEED" }, { "player_id": 30665, "name": "G. 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