World Cup 2026 — every pick, every edge, every miss.

55.1% strike across 127 audited bets. +16.5% ROI. Slow on purpose.

What you get

• Daily World Cup picks during the tournament, posted to a private Telegram channel — every fire and every sit, with edge %.
• Lineup re-checks at T-45 — picks are pulled, downgraded, or upgraded once confirmed XIs drop.
• Transparent staking math — fractional Kelly with explicit caps, bankroll % shown, no "max bet" language.
• Full reasoning behind every fire AND every sit — you see why we skipped a +EV-looking pick, not just the ones we played.

What you DON'T get

• No accumulator bait. No five-fold "banker of the day". Singles, sized to edge.
• No 96% accuracy claims. The number is published in real time. It's around 53%. That's enough.
• No deepfake celebrity endorsements. No "as seen on Sky Sports". No paid actors in suits.
• No "the AI does the work" mystique. A model produces outputs; a human decides whether to fire. Both are accountable.

How the model works (briefly)

A multi-layer ensemble — Dixon-Coles match probabilities, Elo, expected-goals divergence, weather, lineups, referee profiles, and more. The exact layer count, weights, and thresholds aren't public (that's the IP). The outputs are public, the bets are public, the results are settled in real time. See the full breakdown →

FAQ

Is this a subscription?

No. £25 once. Access through 2026-07-19 (Final). No card-on-file, no auto-renew.

How are picks delivered?

Direct to a private Telegram channel. You'll get an invite link within 12 hours of payment.

Why £25 when other "VIP services" charge hundreds?

Because we're not promising you'll get rich. We're selling access to a transparent, audited research feed. Pricing may rise after WC — but it'll still be honest pricing for an honest product.

Will you reveal the model?

No. You see the outputs, edges, and reasoning per pick. The exact layer count, weights, and thresholds stay private — that's the only moat we have.

Refunds?

Full refund if you don't get an invite within 24h. After channel access is granted, no refunds — UK distance-selling rules for digital services. Full policy →

Are you a licensed bookmaker or financial advisor?

Neither. This is a quantitative research service. Picks are model outputs, not financial advice. You place your own bets at your own bookmaker. 18+. Bet responsibly.

Quant Edge — all year, all sports.

When the World Cup ends, the work doesn't. The same model, the same discipline, the same honesty — every week of the year.

What you'll get

• Picks across football and racing — with the edge and the reasoning, not just a tip.
• When to bet, and where to get the best price — line-shopping guidance, because the price is part of the edge.
• Bankroll & staking discipline — fractional-Kelly guidance, sized to your roll. We show you the stake; you place the bet.
• T-45 lineup checks — the team-news edge that's been landing all tournament.
• The full, live track record — every bet logged, win or lose.
• The "when NOT to bet" calls — the discipline matters more than the picks.

Sports at launch

• Football — Premier League, Champions League, Europa League, the major European leagues, and internationals.
• Horse Racing — our multi-factor racing model, built for Cheltenham and the big festivals.
• More to follow — we'd rather cover a few sports brilliantly than many badly. Coverage expands as the edge proves out.

The approach

Hedge-fund discipline applied to betting: quant rigour, bankroll-aware, closing-line-value obsessed, never chasing. To be clear — this is analysis and guidance. We surface the edge and the recommended stake; you bet your own money at your own bookmaker. It's a research feed run with the rigour of a fund, not a fund.