No vertical equity curves. No 96% accuracy claims. Just the actual numbers, with the actual definitions.
Every staked bet logged automatically by the model runner, then settled match-by-match. Real money, not paper.
Bets won รท bets settled. For comparison, a coin-flip strategy run at ~2.0 odds breaks even at ~50%; we need ~52-55%+ to clear typical bookmaker margin depending on average odds taken.
Return on every stake across the full settled sample. We keep the focus on the rate, not the pennies. A young track record is best judged on ROI, strike rate, and closing-line value, not the size of the bankroll behind it. Settled results only; open futures positions (outrights still running) sit outside these numbers until they settle.
CLV measures whether our entry odds beat the final market price. It's the metric tipsters can't fake, which is exactly why we won't publish a soft one. We're re-verifying our closing-odds data for quality right now, so we're holding the CLV figure until it's clean. We'd rather show โunder reviewโ than a number we can't stand behind.
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico Under 2.5 โ
ยท ๐จ๐ฆ Canada BTTS Yes โ
ยท ๐บ๐ธ USA โ0.5 โ
ยท ๐ถ๐ฆ Qatar +1.5 โ
ยท ๐ง๐ท Brazil BTTS No โ
ยท ๐ช๐ธ Spain BTTS No โ
ยท ๐จ๐ฎ Ivory Coast BTTS No โ
ยท ๐ซ๐ท France โ0.5 โ
ยท ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England Win-to-Nil โ
ยท ๐ฟ๐ฆ SA-Canada BTTS No โ
ยท ๐ซ๐ท France Over 2.5 (Sweden) โ
ยท ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England Over 2.5 โ
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands Under 2.5 โ ยท ๐ฌ๐ญ Ghana/Panama +0.5 โ ยท ๐ซ๐ท France Over 3.5 (Iraq) โ ยท ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Kane 2+ SOT โ ยท ๐ฉ๐ช Germany Win-to-Nil โ ยท ๐ฉ๐ช Germany BTTS No โ ยท ๐ซ๐ท France Over 3.5 (Sweden) โ ยท ๐ธ๐ณ Senegal to reach QF โ ยท ๐ซ๐ท๐ธ๐ณ France/Senegal group forecast โ. We post the losses the same as the wins.
Twenty-one model bets settled, twelve landed. England's win-to-nil over Panama (built on Panama failing to score a single goal all tournament) and France's โ0.5 win over Norway kept the run going. The misses stay public too: France's 3-0 over Iraq fell a goal short of our Over line (the exact risk we flagged), and a Kane shots-on-target call lost. The Round of 32 then brought a double clean-sheet loss on Germany v Paraguay, where Paraguay scored and went on to knock Germany out, a lesson on filtering clean-sheet bets to genuinely toothless opponents. Then France's 3-0 win over Sweden split our two overs: the Over 2.5 landed comfortably while the Over 3.5 juice fell a goal short, a clean safe-won, juice-missed night that nudged the ROI down honestly. England's Over 2.5 over DR Congo then landed the next day, Kane's late double turning a shock 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win and a third goal over the line, our second Over 2.5 winner in two days. In the interest of a complete record, two earlier calls we had not logged here also lost: our Senegal to reach the quarter-finals (they fell to Belgium in the last 16) and our France-Senegal group forecast. Both added now, because the losses count the same as the wins. Non-model and for-fun bets are logged separately and stay out of the model's column, win or lose.
| Market | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Over/Under goals | Strongest edge: best-performing market across the track |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Mid: selectively profitable, regional bias |
| 1X2 (match result) | Worst: efficient market, hardest to beat |
| Cards & corners | Backtested vs AFCON/CONCACAF. No per-match edge found, so we don't stake them |
Posting the worst market alongside the best is intentional. If a tipster only shows you their winners, they're showing you a survivor bias, not a strategy.
We use a multi-layer ensemble model. Layers include Dixon-Coles match probability fitting, Elo ratings, expected-goals divergence (rolling xG vs actual finishing), weather effects on goal totals, confirmed lineup/absence gating, referee discipline profiles, head-to-head venue patterns, and others.
We don't reveal the exact layer count, weights, thresholds, or layer names. That's the only piece of IP we have, and giving it away would kill the edge. What we do reveal: every bet, every edge %, the odds taken, every win and loss, in real time.
The bets are public. The results are settled in real time. The method stays private.