A football betting model published in real time. Honest math. Transparent track. Slow on purpose.
127
audited bets
since 2026-03-12
since 2026-03-12
55.1%
strike rate
+16.5%
ROI on stakes
63–52
settled
win–loss record
win–loss record
Every bet logged. Every result settled. Closing-line value tracked. The numbers are not 97%. They are real.
The difference
What we do, and what we don’t
What we do
- Publish single bets above gate, sized to edge
- Document the reasoning per fire and per sit
- Re-check at T-45 when lineups land
- Settle and publish the result, win or lose
- Publish closing-odds for every bet (CLV currently being re-verified)
What we don’t
- Accumulator bait or “banker of the day”
- 96% accuracy claims
- Celebrity endorsements (real or AI-faked)
- “The AI does the work” mystique — a model produces numbers, a human decides
Where to follow
Three channels, one model
The long game
An honest read on where this is
This is a working track record, not a finished one.
127 bets is suggestive — 500+ is what statistical significance looks like.
We’re publishing as we go so you can audit the build in real time.
Slow compounding beats viral cherry-picks every time.