One of the most anticipated ties of the round is set for this evening as Brazil take on Norway in New Jersey. Both teams benefitted from one goal leads last outing and will be aiming for far more decisive results this time out.
The Brazilians will be hoping to get star man Vinicius Jr one on one with his full back, the root of their main chances going forward in this tournament.
They can also expect to have more of the ball than their Scandinavian opponents with Bruno Guimarães and Casemiro controlling the middle of the park. The pair will be crucial to Brazil’s transitional play and have hurt teams already with their frightening pace going forward.
But should they overcommit, Premier League regulars Martin Ødegaard and Sander Berge have proven they are able to control the rhythm of games and make teams pay for taking them lightly. Norway also have the advantage of not needing much possession to be dangerous, with the ever intimidating Erling Haaland able to feed on scraps and punish even the smallest of mistakes.
Set pieces will also need to play a key role in this clash with Norway’s physicality being essential to their strategy, especially with Brazil’s tendency to struggle with dealing with the second ball.
All in all the game comes down to patience vs panic. Brazil want the game decided by pace, flair and dynamism. But if Norway manage to make it tense and clinical, then the pressure on the 5 time world champions could get too much.
Predicted Line Ups
Predictions
The model has Brazil as favourites, but only just. Sitting at a 55% chance of a Brazil win, with their expected goals at 1.88. The most likely results are coming in at 1-0 and 2-0 to the Seleção.
The total expected goals for the game is just 2.68 with the model leaning towards under 2.5 goals. So expect a cautious game from both sides with neither giving much ground.
The model also suggests that if you back Norway, you back Haaland. With their xg sitting at 0.80 the Manchester City man is going to be their main outlet. Both sides to score is a coin flip and it hinges almost entirely on him.