Analysis
Football research, measured. We give sample sizes and intervals, keep the method open, and publish the results that didn't work alongside the ones that did.
Premier League and La Liga attackers: what to expect in 2026/27
Premier League and La Liga attackers with 600+ minutes in 2025/26: ranges for 2026/27 where they passed a held-out test, their position, league moves and injury risk. 24 September 2026
What actually predicts a footballer's injuries
Last season's injuries predict next season's. Age barely does, and neither does workload. 5,133 player-seasons, 7 leagues. 24 September 2026
What a league move does to a player's shots
1,262 moves across 14 divisions. Stepping up costs shots, moving across makes no clear difference, and our ranges failed for one kind of move. 24 September 2026
How much of a striker's finishing is real
Between a fifth and a third, in all 14 leagues we measured. Our ranges held 82% of outcomes, and 61 calls on this season are frozen and public. 22 September 2026
What a season of 23 assists is actually worth
Splitting one player's season into the half that describes him and the half that describes his teammates. A live call on Christos Tzolis, and a closed case to check it against. 22 September 2026
The half of a striker's season worth paying for
Finishing barely persists, so the obvious move is to drop goals and use shots. We tested that and it's wrong. 20 September 2026
Which football stats actually mean anything
657 Premier League season-pairs. Volume and behaviour carry over to the next season. Efficiency doesn't. 17 September 2026
Champions League projected goals
Projected goals for the leading scorers from 5,000 simulated seasons, with the 10th to 90th percentile range. A read on how the competition is shaped. 16 September 2026