In a huge night in this year’s World Cup, the second fixture of the evening will have the Three Lions’ loyal fan base up until the early hours, in the hopes that Thomas Tuchel’s men make it worth their time. But co-hosts Mexico have been one of the most consistent teams in the tournament so far and have placed huge emphasis on the home ground advantage. It’s set to be a stunner and we can’t wait to see how it plays out.
England will likely approach the game as they have their other fixtures, focusing on composure and control. Managing the game through the midfield is key to their tactical plan, but Mexico will want to disrupt this with an intense press and hard fought duels.
Jude Bellingham will be hugely important for England and Mexico will need to prioritise preventing him receiving the ball on the half turn. As if he finds space behind the midfield he’ll be able to feed Harry Kane and the wide players.
Mexico will be well aware of England’s deficiency in defence so far and will target the wide battles. Especially if the England wingers stay high, quick switches and overlaps could be one of their best routes forward.
They will also look to be compact in defence considering how the Three Lions have struggled against low blocks. But they’ll need to keep an eye on Kane, who likes to drop deep and pull centre backs out of shape. If this creates space for the other forwards to attack space in behind, Mexico could live to regret it.
The set piece battle is also interesting, as England are structured and methodical. With Mexico being physical and aggressive. So the prevailing approach could be crucial in deciding the game.
The game state is also something that sticks out as the first scorer could be extremely persuasive in who progresses. If England find the net first, Mexico could leave themselves open seeking an equaliser. But if Mexico go ahead the pressure and intensity could prove an insurmountable obstacle.
Predicted Line Ups
Predictions
England are the model’s narrow favourites at a 40% win percentage. But it’s not looking to be a comfortable night, with a Mexico win and a draw both at 30%. Its favoured results are 2-1 and 1-0 England wins so it doesn’t look like there’ll be much in it.
I’m sure you’ve heard about the altitude factor, with the Azteca sitting at 2,240m above sea level. This narrows down England’s xg and opens the game up in the latter stages.
The model has given both teams to score a chance of 63%, well above the market’s coin flip. Mexico’s attacking threat combined with England’s defensive leaks mean there’s a real chance both sides get on the scoreboard.