Bayern Munich are 94% to win the Bundesliga, with Borussia Dortmund next on 4%. 63 games played, 243 to go. Re-run after every match day.
- Top scorer. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) has 4 and projects to about 27. He finishes top in 37% of our simulated seasons.
- Most assists. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich) has 3, projected about 17.
- Going down. Most likely: Borussia Mönchengladbach (70%), Union Berlin (35%).
Against the market. Before the season the betting market had Bayern around 89% for the title. We are a little higher.
The projected table
Clubs in order of average finishing position across 10,000 simulated seasons, which is not always the order of projected points. Relegated means the automatic places. 16th goes into a play-off, not counted here. Likely finish is the range a club ends in at least eight seasons out of ten.
| Club | Played | Points now | Projected points | Likely finish (8 in 10) | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 7 | 17 | 76 | 1st | 94% | >99% | - |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 17 | 60 | 2nd to 7th | 4% | 77% | <1% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 13 | 54 | 2nd to 11th | 1% | 46% | <1% |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 12 | 52 | 3rd to 12th | <1% | 32% | 1% |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 13 | 51 | 3rd to 13th | <1% | 30% | 1% |
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 12 | 50 | 3rd to 14th | <1% | 21% | 2% |
| Hoffenheim | 7 | 9 | 49 | 3rd to 14th | <1% | 21% | 2% |
| SV Elversberg | 7 | 10 | 49 | 3rd to 14th | <1% | 19% | 2% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 6 | 48 | 4th to 15th | <1% | 15% | 3% |
| Mainz | 7 | 10 | 46 | 5th to 16th | <1% | 10% | 6% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 5th to 16th | <1% | 7% | 7% |
| FC Augsburg | 7 | 9 | 45 | 5th to 16th | <1% | 7% | 8% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 6th to 17th | - | 5% | 12% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 8 | 43 | 7th to 17th | - | 4% | 13% |
| 1. FC Köln | 7 | 8 | 42 | 7th to 17th | <1% | 3% | 15% |
| Hamburger SV | 7 | 9 | 41 | 8th to 17th | - | 2% | 22% |
| Union Berlin | 7 | 6 | 38 | 10th to 18th | - | 1% | 35% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 3 | 32 | 14th to 18th | - | <1% | 70% |
Every position
Each club's chance of finishing in each place. Brighter means more likely. Blank means it did not happen once in 10,000 simulated seasons, which is not the same as impossible. <1% means under half a percent.
The numbers behind the chart, every club and every place
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 94% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 4% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RB Leipzig | <1% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| SC Freiburg | <1% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Werder Bremen | <1% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Hoffenheim | <1% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| SV Elversberg | <1% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| VfB Stuttgart | <1% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Mainz | <1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% |
| FC Augsburg | <1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
| FC Schalke 04 | <1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 4% | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 5% | |
| 1. FC Köln | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 6% |
| Hamburger SV | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 9% | |
| Union Berlin | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 15% | 19% | 15% | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 19% | 51% |
Top scorers
League goals only. The range is where he ends up in eight seasons out of ten.
| Player | Club | Goals now | Projected | Range (8 in 10) | Finishes top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 4 | 27 | 18 to 38 | 37% |
| P. Schick | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 23 | 16 to 32 | 16% |
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | 6 | 22 | 15 to 31 | 12% |
| Y. Ebnoutalib | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 22 | 14 to 31 | 12% |
| N. Füllkrug | Werder Bremen | 8 | 20 | 14 to 27 | 6% |
| J. Burkardt | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 19 | 12 to 28 | 6% |
| P. Tietz | Mainz | 5 | 17 | 10 to 24 | 3% |
| M. Gregoritsch | FC Augsburg | 4 | 15 | 9 to 22 | 2% |
| Luis Díaz | Bayern Munich | 4 | 15 | 9 to 22 | 1% |
| Ermedin Demirović | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 15 | 9 to 22 | 1% |
Most assists
| Player | Club | Assists now | Projected | Range (8 in 10) | Finishes top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise | Bayern Munich | 3 | 17 | 10 to 25 | 35% |
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich | 5 | 14 | 9 to 20 | 13% |
| A. Nusa | RB Leipzig | 5 | 13 | 8 to 19 | 10% |
| M. Grüll | Werder Bremen | 5 | 13 | 8 to 19 | 9% |
| S. Becker | Mainz | 4 | 12 | 7 to 18 | 8% |
| F. Rieder | FC Augsburg | 4 | 11 | 7 to 17 | 5% |
| J. Kimmich | Bayern Munich | 3 | 11 | 6 to 16 | 3% |
| M. Ginter | SC Freiburg | 3 | 9 | 5 to 14 | 2% |
| A. Caci | Mainz | 3 | 9 | 5 to 14 | 1% |
| V. Coufal | Hoffenheim | 2 | 8 | 4 to 14 | 1% |
How it works
Every league game left is played out 10,000 times. Team strengths come from our match ratings, built from this season's and last season's results. Points settle the table, then goal difference and goals scored. La Liga and Serie A break ties on head-to-head first, which we don't model.
A player's total is his goals or assists so far, plus his rate this season blended with last season's, times the share of minutes he is getting, times the games his team has left. When his team scores more in a simulated season, so does he.
What it can't see
Injuries still to come, January signings, manager changes and points deductions. Ratings don't allow for us being wrong about a team, so the biggest numbers run too high and the ranges too narrow. Our own test of league forecasts in English football found betting prices read a final table better than results-based ratings do, and that results-based ranges come out too narrow. This forecast uses results-based ratings, so treat the biggest numbers with care. It is not scored yet: we keep every update and will score them all when the season ends. How we scored our league forecasts before.
The other forecasts
Premier League forecast · La Liga forecast · Serie A forecast · Ligue 1 forecast · Champions League forecast · Ballon d'Or 2027 · Injury risk