Who is most likely to miss five or more league games through injury this season? The best guide is last season's record, and it is a guide, not a verdict.
- What drives it. Injury games last season, by a distance. Age and position barely move it. Heavy league minutes do not push risk up. The study behind this.
- How good is it? Tested on a season it never saw, the model scored about 6% better than using each league's average rate. Real, but modest: plenty of high-risk players stay fit, and some low-risk ones don't.
- Read the list as risk, not news. * means listed out for his club's next game in our feed. We never show the reason.
Premier League
A typical regular here: 30%. 24 of 253 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Branthwaite | Everton | 24 | 25 | 0 | 56% | 1.8x |
| O. Aina | Nottingham Forest | 30 | 20 | 0 | 54% | 1.8x |
| T. Livramento * | Newcastle | 23 | 20 | 5 | 53% | 1.8x |
| B. Kamara | Aston Villa | 26 | 19 | 0 | 53% | 1.8x |
| F. Schär | Newcastle | 34 | 19 | 0 | 52% | 1.7x |
| J. Gvardiol | Manchester City | 24 | 18 | 0 | 52% | 1.7x |
| D. Solanke | Tottenham | 29 | 21 | 0 | 52% | 1.7x |
| J. Grealish | Everton | 31 | 16 | 0 | 51% | 1.7x |
| Lisandro Martínez | Manchester United | 28 | 14 | 0 | 50% | 1.6x |
| J. Kluivert | Bournemouth | 27 | 17 | 2 | 49% | 1.6x |
La Liga
A typical regular here: 30%. 24 of 240 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Puado | Espanyol | 28 | 28 | 7 | 57% | 1.9x |
| J. Foyth | Villarreal | 28 | 22 | 3 | 55% | 1.8x |
| Éder Militão | Real Madrid | 28 | 20 | 8 | 54% | 1.8x |
| J. Giménez | Deportivo La Coruña | 31 | 18 | 0 | 53% | 1.8x |
| Y. Herrera | Real Sociedad | 28 | 17 | 1 | 52% | 1.7x |
| C. Starfelt * | Celta Vigo | 31 | 16 | 3 | 51% | 1.7x |
| Brugui | Levante | 29 | 16 | 0 | 51% | 1.7x |
| Davinchi | Getafe | 19 | 19 | 0 | 50% | 1.7x |
| Pablo Barrios | Atlético Madrid | 23 | 15 | 3 | 49% | 1.6x |
| R. Vargas | Sevilla | 28 | 13 | 5 | 49% | 1.6x |
Serie A
A typical regular here: 30%. 20 of 247 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Neres | Napoli | 29 | 19 | 3 | 53% | 1.8x |
| M. Berisha | Lecce | 23 | 21 | 5 | 53% | 1.8x |
| K. De Bruyne | Napoli | 35 | 17 | 0 | 51% | 1.7x |
| A. Zanoli | Udinese | 26 | 14 | 5 | 50% | 1.7x |
| A. Ismajli | Torino | 30 | 13 | 0 | 49% | 1.7x |
| Amir Rrahmani | Napoli | 32 | 13 | 0 | 49% | 1.6x |
| A. N'Diaye | Parma | 24 | 13 | 1 | 48% | 1.6x |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | Napoli | 30 | 12 | 2 | 48% | 1.6x |
| A. Bella-Kotchap | Venezia | 24 | 12 | 4 | 48% | 1.6x |
| Assane Diao * | Como | 21 | 17 | 3 | 47% | 1.6x |
Bundesliga
A typical regular here: 28%. 13 of 188 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gouweleeuw | FC Augsburg | 35 | 18 | 0 | 51% | 1.8x |
| J. Musiala * | Bayern Munich | 23 | 15 | 3 | 49% | 1.7x |
| B. Hollerbach | Mainz | 25 | 17 | 0 | 49% | 1.7x |
| C. Matsima | FC Augsburg | 24 | 13 | 0 | 48% | 1.7x |
| J. Schmied | 1. FC Köln | 28 | 12 | 0 | 48% | 1.7x |
| W. Omari | Hamburger SV | 26 | 12 | 0 | 48% | 1.7x |
| O. Deman | Werder Bremen | 26 | 12 | 0 | 48% | 1.7x |
| A. Ouédraogo * | RB Leipzig | 20 | 15 | 5 | 48% | 1.7x |
| A. Pieper | Werder Bremen | 28 | 11 | 0 | 47% | 1.7x |
| H. Ito | Bayern Munich | 27 | 11 | 0 | 47% | 1.6x |
Ligue 1
A typical regular here: 30%. 16 of 185 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gradit * | Lens | 33 | 21 | 5 | 54% | 1.8x |
| T. Minamino | Monaco | 31 | 18 | 2 | 52% | 1.8x |
| M. Fofana | Lyon | 21 | 21 | 0 | 52% | 1.8x |
| M. Salisu | Monaco | 27 | 17 | 3 | 52% | 1.8x |
| Vanderson | Monaco | 25 | 17 | 0 | 51% | 1.7x |
| P. Katseris * | Lorient | 25 | 17 | 2 | 51% | 1.7x |
| Mama Baldé | Brest | 30 | 16 | 1 | 51% | 1.7x |
| E. Dier * | Monaco | 32 | 15 | 2 | 50% | 1.7x |
| Fabián Ruiz | Paris Saint-Germain | 30 | 14 | 0 | 50% | 1.7x |
| S. Chergui | Paris FC | 27 | 12 | 0 | 48% | 1.6x |
Championship
A typical regular here: 30%. 48 of 273 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Crnac | Norwich | 22 | 35 | 0 | 57% | 1.9x |
| C. Shaughnessy * | Portsmouth | 30 | 25 | 4 | 56% | 1.9x |
| A. Jones * | Middlesbrough | 29 | 22 | 6 | 55% | 1.8x |
| H. Carter | Blackburn | 26 | 23 | 0 | 55% | 1.8x |
| E. Laird | Birmingham | 25 | 22 | 0 | 55% | 1.8x |
| C. Lang | Preston | 28 | 21 | 0 | 54% | 1.8x |
| J. Murphy * | Portsmouth | 31 | 20 | 10 | 54% | 1.8x |
| I. Chair * | QPR | 28 | 18 | 7 | 52% | 1.7x |
| R. Atkinson | Bristol City | 28 | 17 | 0 | 52% | 1.7x |
| A. McCann * | Preston | 26 | 17 | 10 | 52% | 1.7x |
Eredivisie
A typical regular here: 25%. 22 of 179 are at one and a half times that or more.
| Player | Club | Age | Injury games last season | This season so far | Risk | Times typical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Moder | Feyenoord | 27 | 19 | 9 | 53% | 2.1x |
| O. Velanas | PEC Zwolle | 28 | 17 | 0 | 52% | 2.0x |
| J. Clasie | AZ Alkmaar | 35 | 17 | 2 | 50% | 2.0x |
| G. Read | Feyenoord | 20 | 15 | 0 | 48% | 1.9x |
| S. Tengstedt | Go Ahead Eagles | 26 | 12 | 0 | 47% | 1.9x |
| D. Kasius | AZ Alkmaar | 24 | 12 | 7 | 47% | 1.9x |
| S. Steijn | Feyenoord | 24 | 11 | 0 | 46% | 1.8x |
| L. Hartjes | Excelsior | 23 | 11 | 0 | 46% | 1.8x |
| D. Min | Utrecht | 27 | 9 | 0 | 45% | 1.8x |
| S. Berghuis * | Ajax | 34 | 9 | 3 | 43% | 1.7x |
How it works
An injury game is a league fixture a player missed for a medical reason. Suspensions, illness, international duty and "doubtful" are left out. Outfield players with 600 or more league minutes last season who are in the same league this season. The model was fitted on 5,133 player-seasons, 2022/23 to 2024/25, each followed into the next season.
Risk comes from one model across all seven leagues. Leagues log injuries differently: in the Eredivisie's own records 14% of regulars missed five or more, and in the Championship 38%. Read the figures as a ranking within each league more than an exact level.
What it can't see
Fixture congestion, cup and European minutes, and anything that happened outside these seven leagues. A player new to the league starts with no record here.
The other forecasts
Premier League forecast · La Liga forecast · Serie A forecast · Bundesliga forecast · Ligue 1 forecast · Champions League forecast · Ballon d'Or 2027