Manchester City are 40% to win the Premier League, with Arsenal next on 37%. 80 games played, 300 to go. Re-run after every match day.
- Top scorer. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) has 9 and projects to about 35. He finishes top in 84% of our simulated seasons.
- Most assists. P. Groß (Brighton) has 4, projected about 13.
- Going down. Most likely: Crystal Palace (54%), Sunderland (34%), Newcastle (30%).
Against the market. In October the betting market had Arsenal clear favourites for the title. We have City and Arsenal close to level. We are also far more pessimistic than the market on Crystal Palace and Newcastle, and less so on the promoted clubs.
Manchester City. This forecast ignores any sanction from the charges City were found guilty of in September. A points deduction would change the title and relegation numbers.
Ratings over the table. Our relegation numbers lean on ratings more than the table: Crystal Palace are 54% to go down on 7 points, with 3 clubs below them on fewer.
The projected table
Clubs in order of average finishing position across 10,000 simulated seasons, which is not always the order of projected points. Relegated means the automatic places. Likely finish is the range a club ends in at least eight seasons out of ten.
| Club | Played | Points now | Projected points | Likely finish (8 in 10) | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 8 | 21 | 70 | 1st to 5th | 40% | 89% | - |
| Arsenal | 8 | 21 | 70 | 1st to 5th | 37% | 89% | <1% |
| Brighton | 8 | 16 | 63 | 1st to 8th | 11% | 64% | <1% |
| Liverpool | 8 | 15 | 62 | 2nd to 10th | 8% | 54% | <1% |
| Bournemouth | 8 | 9 | 55 | 3rd to 15th | 1% | 18% | 4% |
| Manchester United | 8 | 7 | 54 | 4th to 16th | 1% | 16% | 5% |
| Chelsea | 8 | 13 | 53 | 4th to 17th | 1% | 13% | 7% |
| Ipswich | 8 | 10 | 52 | 5th to 17th | <1% | 10% | 9% |
| Everton | 8 | 10 | 51 | 5th to 18th | <1% | 7% | 12% |
| Leeds | 8 | 11 | 50 | 5th to 18th | <1% | 6% | 12% |
| Tottenham | 8 | 9 | 50 | 5th to 18th | <1% | 6% | 13% |
| Fulham | 8 | 8 | 49 | 6th to 19th | <1% | 4% | 17% |
| Hull City | 8 | 10 | 48 | 6th to 19th | <1% | 4% | 18% |
| Aston Villa | 8 | 11 | 49 | 6th to 19th | <1% | 4% | 19% |
| Brentford | 8 | 11 | 48 | 6th to 19th | <1% | 4% | 19% |
| Nottingham Forest | 8 | 6 | 48 | 6th to 19th | <1% | 3% | 21% |
| Coventry | 8 | 6 | 47 | 7th to 19th | <1% | 3% | 25% |
| Newcastle | 8 | 11 | 46 | 8th to 20th | <1% | 2% | 30% |
| Sunderland | 8 | 5 | 45 | 8th to 20th | <1% | 1% | 34% |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 7 | 42 | 11th to 20th | <1% | <1% | 54% |
Every position
Each club's chance of finishing in each place. Brighter means more likely. Blank means it did not happen once in 10,000 simulated seasons, which is not the same as impossible. <1% means under half a percent.
The numbers behind the chart, every club and every place
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 40% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||
| Arsenal | 37% | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
| Brighton | 11% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Liverpool | 8% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bournemouth | 1% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Manchester United | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Chelsea | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Ipswich | <1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Everton | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Leeds | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Tottenham | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Fulham | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% |
| Hull City | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| Aston Villa | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| Brentford | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| Nottingham Forest | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| Coventry | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% |
| Newcastle | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 10% |
| Sunderland | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Crystal Palace | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 27% |
Top scorers
League goals only. The range is where he ends up in eight seasons out of ten.
| Player | Club | Goals now | Projected | Range (8 in 10) | Finishes top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 9 | 35 | 25 to 47 | 84% |
| Nicolas Jackson | Aston Villa | 4 | 18 | 11 to 27 | 4% |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 6 | 18 | 12 to 26 | 3% |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | 5 | 18 | 11 to 25 | 2% |
| B. Mbeumo | Manchester United | 4 | 16 | 9 to 23 | 1% |
| M. Tavernier | Bournemouth | 5 | 16 | 10 to 23 | 1% |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | 3 | 14 | 8 to 22 | 1% |
| M. Rogers | Chelsea | 4 | 14 | 8 to 21 | 1% |
| T. Barry | Everton | 3 | 13 | 7 to 20 | <1% |
| C. Palmer | Chelsea | 2 | 12 | 6 to 19 | <1% |
Most assists
| Player | Club | Assists now | Projected | Range (8 in 10) | Finishes top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Groß | Brighton | 4 | 13 | 7 to 19 | 15% |
| D. Rice | Arsenal | 4 | 12 | 7 to 18 | 12% |
| Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 1 | 11 | 5 to 18 | 11% |
| R. Cherki | Manchester City | 2 | 11 | 6 to 17 | 9% |
| Evanilson | Bournemouth | 4 | 11 | 6 to 16 | 6% |
| J. McGinn | Aston Villa | 3 | 10 | 5 to 15 | 5% |
| M. Belloumi | Hull City | 2 | 9 | 5 to 15 | 5% |
| J. Enciso | Ipswich | 2 | 9 | 4 to 14 | 4% |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | 3 | 9 | 5 to 14 | 3% |
| J. Gvardiol | Manchester City | 3 | 9 | 5 to 14 | 3% |
How it works
Every league game left is played out 10,000 times. Team strengths come from our match ratings, built from this season's and last season's results. Points settle the table, then goal difference and goals scored. La Liga and Serie A break ties on head-to-head first, which we don't model.
A player's total is his goals or assists so far, plus his rate this season blended with last season's, times the share of minutes he is getting, times the games his team has left. When his team scores more in a simulated season, so does he.
What it can't see
Injuries still to come, January signings, manager changes and points deductions. Ratings don't allow for us being wrong about a team, so the biggest numbers run too high and the ranges too narrow. Our own test of league forecasts in English football found betting prices read a final table better than results-based ratings do, and that results-based ranges come out too narrow. This forecast uses results-based ratings, so treat the biggest numbers with care. It is not scored yet: we keep every update and will score them all when the season ends. How we scored our league forecasts before.
The other forecasts
La Liga forecast · Serie A forecast · Bundesliga forecast · Ligue 1 forecast · Champions League forecast · Ballon d'Or 2027 · Injury risk